PH-BN pact likely to make gains in PN strongholds: Analyst

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) will gain at least two more seats in each of the three states held by Perikatan Nasional (PN) – Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – in the Aug 12 polls, said Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan.

“The seats will be on top of those that they won in the 14th general election. But it will not be easy for the PH-BN alliance to wrest any state from PN which has core supporters who will stand by it. The same applies to states led by PH and BN, whose voters will be loyal to them.”

Azmi said although Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has expressed confidence in seizing Kedah, it will be an uphill task as PN’s core supporters will not desert it.

He said Terengganu voters are unhappy with PAS, which has governed the state for the last few years.

“Still, they will not desert the party in droves, although their unhappiness could translate into PH-BN gaining a few additional seats.”

Azmi also said it is most likely that the PH-BN pact would gain three or more seats, which will be a major boost for the coalition.

“We could see the same in Kelantan, with an additional two or three seats. Such inroads into PN-held states will strengthen the unity government at the federal level and highlight its wide support.

“PAS, which holds the majority of seats in the three states, is very confident it will not lose any of its seats. The party believes it can easily defend all three states but any success by PH-BN will have an impact on it.”

Six states - Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan – did not hold their state elections concurrently with the 15th general election on Nov 19 last year.

Nominations for the state polls will be held on July 29, while early voting for security personnel such as police and military is set for Aug 8.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said it would be easier for PH-BN to win seats in Kedah and Terengganu and maybe even unseat the incumbent state governments.

He said this is because the two states have a history of changing governments, with Kedah having seen three ruling coalitions – BN, PAS and PH – while Terengganu has had BN and PAS as state governments.

“It must be remembered that in the 14th general election, PAS did not win the state but came to power only after the Sheraton move. Kedah has never been a PAS stronghold, and by working together, PH and BN will have an advantage over PN in the state.

“PN is not as strong as it was before the 15th general election. For one thing, it is no longer in power in Putrajaya. Also, PN cannot project itself as being a clean party since several of its leaders are facing corruption charges.”

On Terengganu, Awang Azman said there were issues constantly cropping up on how PAS governs the state and about land worth millions of ringgit being sold for about RM500,000 to a group representing wives of former elected representatives.

“Kelantan is another issue. It has been ruled by PAS for over 30 years. BN and PH can expect to win a few seats if disgruntled voters support them. BN and PH grassroots will also have a vital role to play in this.

“They need to go to the ground and convince voters that voting for PH-BN will benefit the state,” he said.

from Highlights https://ift.tt/fUxB3Xs
via IFTTT